US lawmakers are already drafting legislation to regulate prediction markets, prompted by insider-trading concerns tied to suspiciously timed bets on strikes against Iran — and now the two platforms at the center of that scrutiny are seeking to more than double their valuations.
Kalshi and Polymarket are each exploring fundraising rounds that could value them at approximately $20 billion apiece, according to the report. Both companies have held early-stage discussions with potential investors at that figure. The report notes the talks remain preliminary and may not produce deals or reach the target valuation.
Kalshi was last valued at $11 billion in December, when it raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, the platform received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020 to operate as a regulated exchange for event-based markets. The company has since surpassed a $1 billion annual revenue run rate, with some estimates placing the figure closer to $1.5 billion.
Polymarket carries a different profile. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform remains inaccessible to US users without a VPN. Its most recent valuation stood at roughly $9 billion in October, after Intercontinental Exchange — owner of the New York Stock Exchange — agreed to invest up to $2 billion. A regulated domestic version of the platform is expected to launch in the US later this year.
Insider Trading Allegations Mount
The proposed valuations arrive as both platforms face growing regulatory heat. US Democratic lawmakers are drafting legislation targeting prediction markets after Senator Chris Murphy alleged that individuals close to the White House may have used advance knowledge of US and Israeli strikes on Iran to place bets. Several Polymarket accounts reportedly made around $1 million by wagering just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.
That episode is not isolated. A cluster of crypto wallets recently made more than $1.2 million on a market tied to a blockchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom, placing bets shortly before investigator ZachXBT published insider-trading claims about the project.
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A third incident compounds the pattern. Last month, a separate Polymarket account reportedly earned approximately $400,000 after placing a large wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before the news became public.
What Comes Next
The fundraising discussions for both platforms are at an early stage and, the report states, may not result in completed deals. Polymarket‘s planned US domestic launch remains the firm’s stated next operational step.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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