Bitcoin closed the second week of March below a critical long-term trend line, erasing its brief climb to $74,000 as Middle East tensions drove oil prices to their highest level since 2022.
Sellers pushed BTC/USD toward $65,600 on Bitstamp into Sunday’s weekly close. The pair rebounded but failed to reclaim the 200-week exponential moving average, which has historically acted as a floor during bull markets and a ceiling during bear ones.
Trader Rekt Capital noted on X that Bitcoin “almost entirely cancelled out its recovery from earlier this week,” adding that the 200-week EMA “continues to act as a ceiling for price until proven otherwise.”
Trader Jelle described the pattern as expected. “Deviation resulted in a quick sell-off over the weekend as expected. $BTC outlook remains unchanged; it’s a boring bear market until proven otherwise,” the analyst wrote.
Not everyone read the price action as catastrophic. Trader Michaël van de Poppe argued that holding a range while oil surged 15% in a single morning, gold fell, and the Nasdaq dropped sharply was “actually quite strong.” Longer-term forecasts cited in the report still point to a macro bottom at $50,000 or lower.
Oil Shock and Inflation Data in Focus
The Strait of Hormuz disruption is now the largest oil supply shock on record, according to trading resource The Kobeissi Letter. It calculated the current disruption as roughly equal to the top two through six historical shocks combined, cutting daily supply by more than 20 million barrels.
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Oil prices surged as much as 30% intraday before reversing sharply after the Financial Times reported that G7 nations are considering releasing 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.
The crisis lands in the same week the US releases the February Consumer Price Index, delayed January Personal Consumption Expenditures data, and revised Q4 GDP figures. January’s CPI came in below expectations, but the Strait of Hormuz shock is unlikely to appear in February’s reading — meaning the data may understate current inflationary pressure.
Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company warned that rising oil and gas prices threaten consumer spending and add inflationary pressure, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward.
Death Crosses and Whale Behavior
Bitcoin has now formed two death crosses — a technical signal in which a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one — flagging continued caution for bulls.
Despite the trip to $74,000, on-chain data shows whales showed little interest in taking profits at that level. The lack of distribution may support the view in derivatives markets that a broader price reversal is building, even if current structure still favors bears.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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