The global climate system is transitioning out of its current cold phase, and forecasters are watching closely to see how warm the next swing gets.
According to the report, NOAA‘s Climate Prediction Center has placed a 62% probability on El Niño emerging between June and August — making it the more likely outcome for this summer. The tropical Pacific is currently in La Niña, the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, where sea surface temperatures sit at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) below the long-term average. That phase is expected to end within weeks as ocean temperatures climb.
El Niño is confirmed when sea surface temperatures reach and hold at least 0.9°F above the long-term average. The concern among forecasters is how far beyond that baseline temperatures might go. A “super El Niño” requires sea surface temperatures to reach at least 3.6°F (2°C) above average and remain there — a threshold the 2023–2024 El Niño briefly breached but did not sustain long enough to qualify.
Competing Probability Estimates
AccuWeather puts the odds of a super El Niño developing by the end of hurricane season in November at 15%. Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather‘s lead U.S. long-range forecaster, described the potential as “moderate to possibly strong El Niño this fall into winter,” while noting that intensity remains uncertain. NOAA‘s Climate Prediction Center offers a 1-in-3 chance of a strong El Niño between October and December, though it characterizes that estimate as “very uncertain.”
The downstream temperature implications extend well beyond the Pacific. Climate scientists have noted that the historical lag between ENSO events and surface temperatures means a strong El Niño developing now would likely lift global averages into 2026 and make 2027 a strong candidate for the warmest year on record — though current projections still place 2024 as the likely benchmark to beat.
Regional and Seasonal Effects
A confirmed El Niño would shift established weather patterns across North America. Warmer, drier conditions typically spread across the northern United States as the jet stream is pushed south, while the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. face elevated flood risk. The Atlantic hurricane season tends to become less active under El Niño conditions, as the phenomenon strengthens storm activity in the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing it in the Atlantic.
The last super El Niño on record occurred in 2015–2016. The ENSO cycle typically completes a warm-to-cold swing every two to seven years, with each phase lasting roughly nine to twelve months, though both timing and duration vary. Whether the current transition reaches super El Niño intensity or settles into a moderate event, forecasters agree the trajectory over the next several months will carry significant weight for global temperature records through at least 2027.
Photo by Leslie Cross on Unsplash
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