Bitcoin is trading like a risk asset during the Strait of Hormuz crisis — and the data makes that hard to dispute.
The correlation between BTC and crude oil prices has climbed to 0.68, according to the report. That is a positive correlation, meaning Bitcoin is moving with oil rather than away from it. The digital gold narrative depends on the opposite being true.
The mechanism runs through inflation. Brent crude hit $113.32 and WTI climbed to $101.01 following President Trump‘s ultimatum to Tehran. Goldman Sachs analysts raised forecasts on Monday, projecting Brent to average $110 through March and April. At that price level, inflation stays sticky, the Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated, and the global liquidity that Bitcoin tracks dries up.
The Strait of Hormuz currently chokes off roughly 20% of global oil supply. Goldman’s base case assumes flows remain constrained at 5% through April 10 — a scenario the firm characterizes as stagflationary. Stagflation punishes risk assets across the board. Bitcoin sits in that category right now.
Where the Selling Pressure Comes From
Rising energy costs hit miners and consumers at the same time. Higher operating costs for miners compress margins and can trigger selling. Higher consumer costs suppress the discretionary capital that flows into speculative assets. Both effects point the same direction.
The selling in Bitcoin is not driven by war fear. It is driven by liquidity fear.
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That distinction matters for timing. Geopolitical events can resolve quickly. Liquidity conditions driven by entrenched inflation and Federal Reserve policy take longer to shift. As long as oil stays above $100 and the correlation holds near 0.68, the report argues upside beyond $70,000 remains capped.
Institutional Accumulation Beneath the Surface
On-chain data tells a different story at the wallet level. Whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have continued accumulating in the $65,000 to $70,000 range. Retail sentiment has fractured, but large holders appear to be treating the macro pressure as temporary — or are positioning for a policy response such as a significant liquidity injection to counter the oil shock.
Morgan Stanley‘s recent ETF filing adds to that picture. Infrastructure-level commitments from institutional players continue regardless of short-term crude price movements.
The report identifies a clear invalidation level for the current bearish read: if Bitcoin reclaims $72,000 while oil holds above $100, the decoupling argument becomes viable again. That combination — rising BTC against a still-elevated oil price — would signal that the 0.68 correlation is breaking down and that Bitcoin is reasserting independent safe-haven behavior.
Until that happens, the asset is tracking energy markets.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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