Bitcoin could fall to $51,000 if oil prices reach $180 per barrel, a scenario some Saudi Arabian officials now consider plausible should Middle East supply disruptions persist past April.
Brent crude was trading near $105 per barrel as of Friday, up roughly 50% since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Oil transits through Iran‘s Strait of Hormuz dropped to 9.71 million barrels per day by mid-March from 25.13 million in February, according to Kpler data. Energy data firm Vortexa puts the figure even lower, at 7.5 million barrels per day, the report states.
A 2023 US Federal Reserve study found that every 10% rise in crude prices adds roughly 0.35–0.40 percentage points to US CPI. Applied to a further 70% surge in oil, that would push inflation up by approximately 2.5–2.8 percentage points — enough to lift headline CPI well past its current 2.4% level and well above the Fed‘s 2% target.
Markets are already repricing rate expectations. Traders have removed a second 2026 rate cut from their base case, and the first cut is now not fully priced until October 2027, according to CME data cited in the report.
Bitcoin Demand Weakens as Macro Pressure Builds
BTC has outperformed US equities and gold since the conflict began, but its uptrend is showing signs of strain. The price has fallen 9.50% from a local high near $76,000, trading below $70,000 as of Thursday. That pullback has formed a bear flag pattern with a measured downside target of $51,000–$52,000.
Compounding that technical weakness is a sudden pause in institutional buying. Michael Saylor‘s Strategy did not purchase any Bitcoin this week, after acquiring 22,337 BTC in the week ending March 15 and 17,994 BTC the week prior. At its recent pace, the firm had been absorbing supply equivalent to multiple weeks of global mining output. Its absence removes a significant demand floor at a moment when macro risks are intensifying.
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Coinbase premium has also turned negative, signaling reduced buying appetite from US-based investors.
De-escalation Remains the Wildcard
Any diplomatic resolution or ceasefire in the conflict could unwind the oil spike quickly. Historical precedent suggests geopolitically driven energy surges tend to be short-lived, and Bitcoin has historically recovered as market fear subsides. The $51,000 scenario depends on the supply disruption persisting and higher oil feeding through to sustained inflation — neither outcome is assured.
Higher borrowing costs, tighter liquidity, and weakening risk appetite are the transmission mechanism that connects an oil shock to Bitcoin prices. Whether that chain completes depends largely on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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