Ether has spent weeks cycling below a key monthly resistance level, and the latest data from onchain and derivatives markets tells a divided story about what comes next.
After touching a monthly high of $2,209 on Friday, ETH retreated below that resistance — a level it has now tested five times since February. According to the report, Glassnode‘s cost-basis distribution heatmap shows a heavy accumulation cluster near $2,800, where more than 3 million ETH were previously purchased. Cost-basis clusters tend to act as price magnets during upward moves, as investors in those zones defend entry levels or increase exposure.
The path between current prices and that cluster is notably thin. The data shows limited historical supply concentration between $2,200 and the $2,800 zone, suggesting that a clean break above the current range could allow price to move with less friction toward that level. The 200-day simple moving average also intersects near $2,800 on the daily chart — a threshold ETH has not approached since early January.
Futures Positioning Signals Caution at the Top
The derivatives market complicates the bullish picture. Open interest expanded 21% during this week’s rally, rising from $9 billion to $10.9 billion as the price pushed toward $2,200, indicating traders were adding leveraged positions into the move. Once ETH tested that upper boundary, open interest fell roughly 6%, pointing to profit-taking and position reduction rather than continued accumulation of risk.
Spot market data from the same period showed genuine demand. The spot volume cumulative delta — which measures aggressive buying against selling — climbed to $87 million from -$150 million on March 8, as buyers stepped in near the $2,000 region. That buying pressure, however, faded as the price approached $2,150. The bid-ask ratio, which had favored buyers strongly during the consolidation phase near $2,000, weakened as the rally neared its ceiling.
A Market Without a Decisive Lean
Hyblock data adds further texture to the derivatives picture. Long traders account for approximately 59.4% of ETH futures exposure on Binance — a distribution the report describes as relatively balanced. That kind of positioning typically produces choppy, range-bound price action rather than a clean directional move, as neither side holds enough dominance to force a resolution through nearby resistance.
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The data, taken together, shows two forces in tension: onchain accumulation history pointing firmly toward $2,800, and active derivatives traders who are reducing exposure rather than pressing the rally. The 33% move required to reach that target faces a market structure that, at present, lacks the conviction to sustain it.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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