XRP is trading around $1.34 after a brief rally failed to clear a key resistance zone, and analysts are watching for a potential slide below $1 if current technical and on-chain conditions persist.
Over the weekend, XRP climbed roughly 13% to reach $1.43, but that move stalled almost immediately. A cost-basis distribution heatmap from Glassnode shows that approximately 1.48 billion XRP were acquired in the $1.39–$1.43 range over the past 30 days — a dense supply cluster that effectively capped the price. When assets trade back into zones where large volumes were purchased, holders tend to sell at or near breakeven, creating natural resistance.
The daily chart tells a more cautious story. XRP has been forming a symmetrical triangle since early February, with a series of lower highs pressing down against a rising lower boundary. The pair is now trading just below the lower trend line at $1.35. A confirmed daily close beneath that level would technically validate the breakdown, with the pattern’s measured target pointing toward $0.95 — roughly 29% below where XRP sits today.
That number is not a certainty. It is a projection derived from the triangle’s height applied to the breakout point, a standard technical calculation. Whether price reaches it depends on how buyers respond at intermediate supports.
Several levels matter between here and there. A close below $1.20 — the lower boundary of a separate falling channel — puts the February 6 low of $1.11 in focus, and after that, the round-number support at $1.00. Analyst BitGuru noted that if the $1.20–$1.22 zone holds and buyers return, a recovery toward $1.80–$2.20 could follow relatively quickly. A two-day chart also places $0.80 in view, contingent on continued whale selling.
The on-chain data adds weight to the bearish case. Over the past week, more than 472 million XRP — valued at roughly $652 million — moved to Binance, the largest such inflow in February according to CryptoQuant. The exchange’s XRP balance has risen from 2.55 billion tokens in mid-February to 2.73 billion, an increase of about 180 million tokens, or roughly 7%, in under three weeks.
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Transfers to exchanges do not guarantee selling, but they do indicate that holders are positioning assets closer to liquid markets. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost described these flows as reflecting a “more defensive posture” among XRP investors, adding that inflows of this size “can create the conditions for a sudden wave of selling pressure capable of impacting price action in the short term.”
Rising exchange balances are broadly read as a bearish signal. More tokens available on trading platforms means greater potential supply hitting the order book, which can weigh on price, particularly when buying momentum is thin.
XRP is navigating a convergence of technical deterioration and rising exchange supply. Neither alone is definitive, but together they outline a market that is leaning cautious in the near term.
Photo by Aidan Tottori on Unsplash
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